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Round ArrowCore Mortgage Risk Monitor

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Core Mortgage Risk Monitor

 

The Core Mortgage Risk Monitor (CMRM) is a quarterly publication tracking an economic index that forecasts the relative risk of residential mortgage loan delinquencies due to fraud propensity and collateral risk, house price dynamics, and the health of the local market economy. An elevated Core Mortgage Risk Index signals the increased potential for financially disruptive and costly economic consequences for consumers, their local community, and mortgage financiers.

 

The Core Mortgage Risk Monitor provides important, insightful trend analysis and forecasting, including in-depth examination of the top high-risk and low-risk U.S. markets, and the new National Core Mortgage Risk Index Trend, which offers a detailed analysis of the all-important "whens, wheres and whys" of mortgage risk trends over the past three years.

Issue Detail Date
Q1 | 2009 During the first quarter of 2009, the Core Mortgage Risk Index (CMRI) (Exhibit 2) declined 1% from a year ago, its first decline since Q1 2005. The CMRI—which forecasts delinquency risk—is still, however, nearly 50% higher than the base period of Q1-2002, near the end of the last U.S. economic downturn. 04/2009
Q4 | 2008 The Q4 2008 Core Mortgage Risk Index (CMRI) rose 12% from a year ago, down slightly from Q3’s 15% increase year-over-year. The CMRI—which forecasts delinquency risk—nonetheless remains high at 54% above the base period of Q1 2002, a period near the end of the last U.S. economic recession. 10/2008
Q3 | 2008 The Q3 2008 Core Mortgage Risk Index (CMRI) (Exhibit 2) has risen 12% above a year ago and increased for eleven of the last twelve quarters. The CMRI—which forecasts delinquency risk—is currently 55% above the base period of Q1 2002, a period near the end of the last U.S. economic recession... 07/2008
Q2 | CA| 2008 During Q2 2008, California’s Core Mortgage Risk Index is up 41percent from the previous year and is at the highest level in six years. The rise in California’s index is more than twice the rise in the national mortgage risk index during the last year. 05/2008
Q2 | 2008 The Q2 2008 Core Mortgage Risk Index (CMRI) (Exhibit 2) stands 16% above the same period a year ago, having increased for the fourth consecutive quarterly reporting period... 04/2008
Q1 | 2008 Relative to the base period of Q1 2002, the Q1 2008 Core Mortgage Risk Index (CMRI) (Exhibit 2) increased by 23% and by 9% from Q4 2007. For the third quarter in a row the index continued to rise from the level on which the index is based – a period near the end of the last U.S. economic recession... 01/2008
Q4 | 2007 Relative to the base period of Q1 2002, the Q4 2007 Core Mortgage Risk Index (exhibit 2) increased by 1.1% and by 1.6% from Q3 2007... 10/2007
Q3 | 2007 Relative to the base period of Q1 2002, the Q3 2007Core Mortgage Risk Index (exhibit 2) increased by 5% and from the previous quarter (Q2 2007) by 4.4%... 07/2007
Q2 | 2007 Relative to the base period of Q1 2002, the Q2 2007 Core Mortgage Risk Index (exhibit 2) is holding relatively steady, posting a small, 6% increase, bringing the index back to the base period level... 04/2007
Q1 | 2007 CMRM data from Q4 2006 indicates a number of emerging trends for the first six months of 2007... 01/2007
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MarketPulse

 

MarketPulse, the quarterly voice of LoanPerformance, offers an unparalleled nationwide reality check of current and historical delinquency and prepayment trends, early warning on metro areas, states, and regions beginning to show signs of payment distress and powerful insights from leading thinkers on the mortgage finance and securities marketplace.

 

Issue Detail Date
September 2009 Data The information source you need to stay current in the mortgage marketplace. 01/21/2010
June 2009 Data The information source you need to stay current in the mortgage marketplace. 09/17/2009
September 2008 Data The information source you need to stay current in the mortgage marketplace. 03/23/2009
June 2008 Data The latest edition of MarketPulse—with June 2008 data—includes a new whitepaper, Prepayments in Time of Crisis, The Impact of Coincident Credit Tightening, House Price Decline and Steepening Yield Curve, by Richard Harmon, PhD, and Ricardo Horowicz, PhD, Fixed Income Research, Countrywide Securities Corporation. Harmon and Horowitz examine how key parameters driving the current housing and credit crises will affect future portfolio prepayment speeds. 09/18/2008
March 2008 Data The information source you need to stay current in the mortgage marketplace. 06/02/2008
December 2007 Data The information source you need to stay current in the mortgage marketplace. 03/03/2008
June 2007 Data As hybrid arms reset, voluntary prepays should get more attention. The data suggest that subprime borrowers were refinancing at rates that match long-run experience. The new FHA secure plan should offer some support, but an economy that may be slowing means more challenges. 12/10/2007
March 2007 data The information source you need to stay current in the mortgage marketplace 08/13/2007
December 2006 data While the structured finance community has been fixated on the dramatic credit deterioration in the past 6 months, the spotlight has mostly focused on subprime sectors. 04/09/2007
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